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We know the cycle. First comes the Arab provocation, followed by Israeli inaction. The international media ignore the event. Then, Arab pressure mounts, prompting an Israeli retaliatory measure that triggers headlines from Lima to Beijing. The Arab world is furious, mass hysteria reigns in Europe, the United Nations calls emergency sessions to discuss Israel’s aggression, and the United States — in an impossible effort to try to please everyone –jumps in with an «evenhanded» statement calling all the parties to exercise restraint. And so it goes until another crisis erupts.

The current one involves a water dispute between Lebanon and Israel that by now may have turned into a countdown to war. These countries have no diplomatic relations and technically are in a state of war. Lebanon hosts Hezbollah, a radical Shiite group that has attacked Israelis in the past. Israel occupied south Lebanon for nearly two decades. Under such a tense atmosphere, almost any minor issue has the potential of becoming a major confrontation. This is especially so when, as in this case, water is at the center of the conflict.

Nations have fought for water in the past in the Middle East, and in particular, the 1967 War resulted in part from a Syrian-Lebanese scheme to divert the Jordan River. After Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon, the Lebanese have tried twice to alter the water status quo, regulated by unwritten understandings dating back to the 1920s. Israel protested Lebanon’s conduct but took no military action. Now Lebanon has begun a diversion water project from the Wazzani River, a tributary of the Jordan River, which in turn flows into the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) — Israel’s primary water reservoir.

Water experts observe that such action will have a direct impact on the quantity and quality of available water in Israel. First, any amount of water diverted from rivers that feed Israeli lakes will result in a reduction of available water. Second, by reducing the quantity of sweet water that reaches the Sea of Galilee, its level of salinity inevitably will increase, something that could «permanently endanger the entire Kinneret as a viable source of sweet water,» according to Martin Sherman, author of The Politics of Water in the Middle East.

Importing water

With a per-capita supply five times smaller than Lebanon’s, Israel is facing a severe water shortage. In recent years, Israel has had to cut the allotted water supplies to agriculture, and it has been unable to transfer the water quotas to Jordan that the peace treaty between these two nations mandate. Last month Israel signed a treaty with Turkey to import water to meet its national needs. Lebanese authorities, of course, know this reality all too well.

Beirut attempts to justify its unilateral decision alleging that Israel stole water from southern Lebanon rivers during the occupation years (untrue) and arguing that the water demand in the south has increased since many nationals moved there after Israel’s withdrawal. Even if the latter point were true, Lebanon could satisfy that demand by taking water from other sources that would not affect Israel’s water supply, such as the Litani River, which flows into the Mediterranean Sea. As Lt. Col. Gal Luft (IDF, res.) points out, the fact that Lebanon is not pursuing the Litani River option indicates that political, rather than welfare, considerations are behind its Wazzani project.

Perhaps arriving at the same conclusion, Washington has threatened Beirut to cut a pledged $35 million aid package if the Lebanese don’t show some flexibility. But, wary of the repercussions that an Israeli military action on Lebanon water facilities might have on an impending U.S. attack on Iraq, the Bush administration has been exerting pressure on the Sharon government, too.

Resort to force?

Forty percent of Israel’s water resources is in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), where the Palestinians want to establish their state. Another 30 percent of Israel’s water resources is in the Golan Heights, claimed by Syria. Lebanon is already diverting water from a major tributary to rivers that stream to Israel.

While Lebanon has a right to take water from rivers that run through its territory, Israel also has the right to respond militarily to what can be termed a casus belli. Unless U.S. diplomatic mediation succeeds, Israel will have to resort to force to protect its water supplies.

At that point, expect the headlines – naturally.

Julián Schvindlerman is a political analyst and journalist in Washington D.C.