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Picture this dramatic scene. During a heated meeting in the Oval Office, President Bush — angered at comments made by CIA Director George Tenet — slaps Tenet across the face and pulls a gun on him, shouting, «I will kill you!» Trembling from nerves, Bush lets the gun fall to the floor a few seconds later, and Tenet leaves the room accompanied by the uncomfortable silence of the president’s aides.

Difficult to imagine? An equivalent drama occurred just last week between Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat and Preventive Security Chief Jibril Rajoub at the PA’s Ramallah headquarters.

It seems that the two-month-old decision by the Israeli government to designate Arafat as «irrelevant,» sever ties with him and confine him to his Ramallah office — surrounded by tanks — is having quite an impact on the chairman’s emotional stability.

For one of the world’s most well-known frequent flyers, this was to be expected. Whenever there was a major crisis in the Palestinian-Israeli arena, Arafat was sure to be found in the sky on his way to Cairo, Moscow, Beijing, Durban or Paris — anywhere but Gaza or Ramallah. One of his confidants once remarked to an Arafat biographer that, during a particular month, Arafat had spent more time in the air than on the ground. So legendary is this reputation that some Arab political commentators have called the Palestinian leader a «flying-carpet revolutionary.» No doubt he is upset by his confinement.

But Arafat’s stress is most deeply rooted in the message that Israel’s decision conveys. By cutting him off, for the first time in a decade, the Israelis have declared to the PLO leader, the Palestinians, the Arab world and the international community that Arafat is in fact expendable. He understands this message well; hence his outraged reaction. So do, for that matter, his many strongmen, many of which are engaged in a bitter power-struggle behind the scenes.

In any case, Arafat is mortal and, sooner or later, by natural cause or human design, he will depart from this world. Who will be the next leader of the Palestinian national movement? This is how the political horizon looks:

Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala), speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, and Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen), secretary-general of Fatah, are the two most likely candidates to emerge from within Palestinian Authority bureaucracy.

• Both are close to Arafat, both have taken part in high-level diplomatic negotiations with the Israelis, and both are regarded as moderates in much of the West.
• Neither, however, enjoys significant support from the grass-roots leaders of the intifada or the masses.

Alternatively, power could fall into the hands of militant leaders, such as Tanzim head Marwan Barghouti or the PLO’s historic «foreign minister» Farouq Qadoumi, a staunch opponent of the peace process.

Analysts agree that much will depend on whether the succession takes place during a period of political negotiations or military confrontation with Israel. Under more-tranquil circumstances, PA leaders may have a better chance of enticing popular support. Conversely, during clashes, the militants will have the upper hand. Whoever the successor, he undoubtedly will be dependent on the good graces of the many security-service heads who have their own power ambitions.

In the current geographical reality (discontinuous territory divided by borders, settlements and checkpoints) the Palestinian polity may end up broken into cantons of power controlled by various security leaders. Israeli TV commentator Ehud Ya’ari terms this scenario the «United Palestinian Emirates,» in which Arafat’s successor would be a nominal head running a de- centralized administration whose legitimacy would rest in the provinces. In addition to affecting Palestinians in the territories, Arafat’s passing will impact those in Israel (Arab Israelis) and in Jordan, as well as Palestinian refugees all over the Arab world.

Moreover, the failure of Palestinian secular nationalism will give space to the radical Islamic groups that are eager to see «Palestine» governed by the laws of Shari’a. Also, don’t expect Syria, Iraq and Iran to remain aloof; they will view this unstable context as an opportunity to gain a foothold in the Palestinian political arena.

Thanks to Arafat’s legacy of selfish leadership, managerial incompetence and political myopia, his successor will not have an easy time. As a consequence, neither will Israel, the United States or any other concerned party in the Middle East quagmire.

Julián Schvindlerman is a political analyst and journalist in Washington D.C.